Well, it’s half-way through the year and the fund houses and wealth managers have been rolling out their gurus to explain the state of the global economy, set out their “base-case” scenarios, hedged with the usual caveats, and guide us on a path towards risk-adjusted riches. Except, Spy has to admit he’s been struggling to come out of the haze of countless media briefings with the usual assurance that allows him to blag so authoritatively to clients, friends and any unwitting bystanders at the bar. The briefings – even the intimate gatherings that allow you to interrogate the sage – seem to merge into one miasma of confusion and evasion. Gone is the Fed-induced euphoria of the first four months of the year. Now it’s all about the escalating US-China trade dispute. It all seemed different at the start of the year: the US economy was going to slow, but the Fed would work its magic to avoid a recession and cut rates; lower rates lead to a weaker greenback, which is great news for Asian and emerging market returns. All pretty straightforward, even to Spy. But, the dollar has shrugged off the bears. When the going gets tough, investors flock to safety, which despite Trump’s best efforts, is still the dollar. Besides, which other developed market government bonds yield so much? Of course, the gurus know this, and have come up with a wonderful “have your cake and eat it” formula. It goes something like this: “Strategically we are overweight…[name your risky asset class]…and tactically we like US Treasuries”. Not a bad formula at all, and so when asked, your Spy will explain that “strategically I’m on the wagon, but tactically mine’s a G&T”. Cheers…
During these slow summer months, the Spy has been busy keeping track of people moves. Stephan Kolz recently left Vontobel Wealth Management. Stephan was head of investment management in Asia, based in Hong Kong. No word on his replacement. Lots of movements at wealth managers this year. As Spy reported previously, Michael Christo of HSBC PB and Kevin Liem at CBH Asia, after many years at their respective firms, have both left this month.
Yoon-Chou Chong, head of Asia and EM equities at Natixis affiliate Ostrum Asset Management, is leaving the firm, Spy understands. Yoon-Chou co-managed the firm’s Asia equities fund, which has outpeformed the category over one- and three-year periods. Natixis has been in the news recently with warnings about its H20 funds in the wake of the illiquid assets debacle that led to the fall of Neil Woodford’s fund and reputation.
Value Partners in Hong Kong has seen the departure of May So, who was in the marketing department. Fennie Lin, formerly in a marketing role at Haitong International in Hong Kong, will be May’s replacement, the Spy has understood. Fennie had been with Haitong for 11 years.
The Spy has also overheard that at Aberdeen Standard in Hong Kong, Alvena So was recently promoted to head of media relations for Asia-Pacific. Alvena, who came over from Standard Life Investments after it merged with Aberdeen about two years ago, was formerly press manager for global communications. Earlier this month ASI also announced a new head of Thailand, Robert Penaloza and hired Nick Schoenmaker as senior investment specialist in Australia.
In a bid to open up to the wider public, institutional adviser Mercer has launched the Fund Watch website for Asia — a lite version of fund review information previously only available to its institutional clients. So far, reviews of only 11 regulator-approved funds in Hong Kong (4) and Singapore (7) are on the website, but the firm plans to publish many more as the months roll on. The forward-looking reports compete with Morningstar’s analyst ratings, but Mercer will tilt toward funds that are relatively new in Asia, Spy understands.
Two people that couldn’t be more different are the heads of the two regulators – Ravi Menon of MAS and Ashley Alder of the SFC. Menon’s image is fintech-ian and VC-ish and Alder is more like a long-standing member of a government committee, muses Spy. But that hasn’t stopped the two agencies from mirroring each other in a quest to become the “Financial hub of Asia”. The thought came to Spy this week when MAS announced the new look of its website, which arrived not long after the SFC also had some redesign of the home page, though the SFC started in 2018 when the new eagle logo was introduced. The redesigns are amusing, but the two regulators have been copying each other in many areas. One followed the other in fintech agreements signed with other countries, with fintech sandboxes, with new open-ended fund structures, with the manager-in-charge regime. As Asia’s private wealth increases, could copying lead to policy competition? Spy is unsure if that would mean a race to the top or to the bottom.
When today’s billionaires made their first million dollars, how long did it take? The Spy sometimes enjoys these fun facts, even with full knowledge they are clickbait. But in this listing of billionaires, it is clear that they all took a few years to make their first $1m – all except for Jack Ma. The Alibaba billionaire made the first million apparently instantly. While there have long been rumours about how Jack abruptly amassed personal wealth, it does say something about the potential for those looking to tap China’s domestic consumer market, which is also out of the direct firing line in the trade dispute. As the Spy knocks back another frosty Pauliner dark weissbier (hefe, not crystal, with lemon slice), he notes that he is still waiting for his own first $1m, which is overdue for arrival.
In Hong Kong, Spy’s photographers have caught Fidelity promoting itself as a steward of MPF fund investments:
Until next week…
