The year of the Water Tiger shows an “imbalance, leading to uncertainties and extremes ahead, Stella Liu, HK/China conglomerate and Macau gaming analyst at CLSA, told a webinar this week, where she introduced the firm’s annual “alternative” forecasts.
“We expect the HSI to have a lively start to the year before a bounce south in March. After regaining its footing, it returns to stable growth and peaks over the summer. A pause followed by a dip in early autumn occurs before the market gathers speed going into winter. The Rooster finishes on a high note as he flaps into the new year,” Liu said.
The FSI methodology is based on applying the bazi (eight-character fortune) against the birth sign of the HSI, an Earth Rooster launched in November 1969. The mysterious influences of the wu xing (five energies) and xuan hong (flying stars) are then incorporated into the mix.
“In assessing the sectors, we concentrate on the relative strength of each of the elements – earth, water, metal, wood and fire – as they cycle through the five phases in the respective monthly charts,” Justin Chan, HK/China small & mid cap analyst at CLSA said.
Since water is the star of the year, trade, shipping and travel should pick up, holding steady over the summer before pushing higher in the winter. Wood is plentiful in the bazi, so related sectors such as education and clothing should find themselves freed from certain constraints, according to the FSI.
In contrast, metal is entirely absent this year, bringing challenges to the financial markets. Earth-related industries such as construction and property may have a slow start and a year-end slowdown, but this should not hide consistent opportunities through the remainder of the year. For fire-related industries such as technology and utilities, late spring to early summer looks to be the best period, Chan explained.
Location, location
The flying stars bring their attributes to bear on the nine houses they inhabit, and this cosmic framework can be applied to any location, from people’s homes to the entire planet. For Hong Kong property investors this year, the best direction is northeast, where the Eight White star brings fortune and wealth.
The Nine Purple sits in the South – “buy yourself a fruit-bearing plant or modest persimmon plantation to attract joyous affairs and a good future”, said CLSA. “Avoid the Centre, as Five Yellow brings misfortunes, and place metal here to dissipate the overwhelming earth forces.”
Turning to the zodiacs, the Horse, Rabbit, Goat and Pig shall have “smooth and fortuitous years”. The Tiger, Snake, Monkey, Rooster, Rat and Ox will have reasonable years, while the Dragon and Dog will fall into the water and need a life raft, the FSI predicts.
