BlackRock has downgraded its view on US equities from overweight to neutral and upgraded its view on US Treasuries after yields on the 10-year surged to 5.3%.
Higher yields on offer from US Treasuries improve potential returns, according to strategists at the BlackRock Investment Institute, as it gives investors a chance to “lock in income”.
“Higher yields and potentially excessive Fed tightening expectations create room to unwind our U.S. Treasury underweight – a mainstay for most of the last six years,” the strategists said.
They favor short-term bonds and upgraded them to overweight as it sees “scope for excessive Fed tightening expectations to unwind”.
When it comes to longer end of the curve, yields have reset to BlackRock’s long-held higher rates view, and so the strategists have upgraded their view from underweight to neutral as “we want to lock in some attractive income”.
BlackRock also trimmed its long-held underweight in JGBs, citing an upward move in the 10-year from 0.4%-0.5% to above 3%.
US Equity downgrade
BlackRock said it partially funded its upgraded view on US Treasuries by downgrading its long-held US equity overweight to neutral.
The strategists described it as a short-term risk management move, and that its fundamental convictions on artificial intelligence (AI) transformation remain intact.
However, they said they are monitoring the growing focus on AI policy and the AI buildout across the US.
“Higher rates are increasingly differentiating companies by their ability to generate earnings and returns above the cost of capital,” the strategists said.
“We still favor AI-related companies and listed infrastructure, where growing demand and scarcity in critical infrastructure support attractive returns. Existing infrastructure could grow even more valuable amid this scarcity.”
“Despite narrative swings, we believe fundamentals will ultimately prevail,” they said. “We remain constructive on AI and stand ready to add risk again as visibility improves and attractive entry points emerge.”
Despite downgrading US equities, BlackRock has maintained its overweight on emerging market equities.