Recent

Recent

Recent

Recent

Recent

Recent

Schroders sees selective private market access as risks mount

Small and mid-market buyouts, asset-based finance and infrastructure debt are key areas to help investors navigate an uneven recovery in private markets, according to Nils Rode, Schroders Capital’s chief investment officer.

Geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation and the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom are making private market allocations more challenging, but also creating opportunities for selective allocations, according to Schroders Capital.

The firm’s fourth-quarter 2026 private markets outlook highlighted opportunities across private equity, credit, infrastructure and real estate – pinpointing valuations, income resilience and long-term structural demand as key areas of focus.

With listed equity markets increasingly dominated by a handful of technology and AI-related companies, Schroders Capital sees diversification as an important consideration for wealth portfolios.

Reinforcing this is the trend of private markets following a different trajectory from listed equities in recent years. Buyouts, infrastructure equity and real estate have experienced a broader slowdown since their 2021 peak, potentially offering more attractive entry points.

However, Rode also cautioned that the recovery remains uneven, making manager and asset selection increasingly important.

Private equity: smaller deals in focus

In private equity, fundraising improved during the second quarter of 2026, while aggregate deal values remained elevated, said Schroders Capital. However, deal and exit counts fell to their lowest levels since the third quarter of 2021, with distributions still subdued.

The firm favours small and mid-market buyouts, where competition for capital is less intense and entry valuations remain below those in the large-cap segment.

These investments also offer greater scope to generate returns through operational improvements rather than financial engineering, added Rode.

Secondaries are another preferred area, offering potentially shorter investment durations and more predictable return profiles.

Secondary transaction volumes reached a record in the first half of 2026, with continuation investments becoming an increasingly established feature of the market.

Looking past traditional credit

While US credit fundamentals remain relatively healthy, tighter spreads and strong investor demand for income have compressed risk premia across parts of the market.

Rode therefore pointed to strategies offering collateral backing, contractual cashflows or structural protections.

These include asset-based finance, which provides diversified underlying exposures and relatively short maturities, and infrastructure debt, supported by electrification, energy security and digitalisation.

Insurance-linked securities also feature prominently, added the outlook, offering diversification through returns driven primarily by natural catastrophe risks rather than economic conditions.

Infrastructure: a shift towards power networks

The AI boom is also reshaping infrastructure investment opportunities. Rising electricity demand from data centres, alongside electrification and energy security requirements, continues to support investment in energy infrastructure, according to Schroders Capital.

However, Rode believes the opportunity is shifting beyond renewable power generation towards the networks needed to deliver electricity reliably.

Grid bottlenecks, interconnection delays and limited system flexibility are creating demand for transmission networks, storage and flexible generation capacity, he explained.

Investment in transmission and distribution is forecast to almost triple by 2035, said the outlook.

Real estate recovery uneven

Meanwhile, although global real estate transaction volumes improved during the first half of 2026, particularly in the US and EMEA, financing costs and constrained liquidity still weigh on the sector.

Schroders Capital sees opportunities for investors able to deploy capital at rebased valuations, notably where scarce financing creates scope for repositioning or recapitalisation.

Rode said the manager favours urban logistics, living and storage assets, supported by structural demand and potential rental growth.

For wealth investors, the broader message is that private market opportunities remain available, but returns will increasingly depend on disciplined valuations, asset quality and managers’ ability to deliver operational improvements.

You may also like…